Policy

Demonstrations and Discussion

Lecture Transcript

Introduction

This workshop will deal with the idea of an NEO hitting earth undiverted. We will first discuss the ramifications of such an occurance and then have a "mock UN" where we will demonstrate how many countries would deal with the impending disaster.
The first thing the students need to do is to place themselves in the position of a world leader (i.e.a president, religious leader, dictator, etc.). This will make the discussion seem more relevant.
Lecture
As you may or may not be aware, we have very little technology available for diverting comets, asteriods or anything that would choose to be a dangerous earth-bound object. We need to consider the possibilities of what would happen if we were unable to divert such a disaster as this is a very real possibility.
If an object were to hit the earth, there is a 2/3 chance it would land in the water and a 1/3 chance it would hit land. Even though there is less chance it would hit land, we need to carefully look at the effects as nearly all land is inhabited by one group of people or another. In addition, we have to look at the after effects of an impact because of the nuclear winter possibilities.
The first thing we need to discuss is the scientific approach to predicting people's choices. Political science, which is what we are going to introduce you to, is the study of the principles, organization and methods of government. The reason why political science is so important is because the people of the world work with each other primarily through our governments. Political science can help us understand and predict how our elected representatives will act. It will also help our representatives understand the wants and needs of their constituents.
Political science models behavior according to the rational choice paradigm: Political science is the study of individual interdependent choice in the context of institutions and peoples' actions within this context are directed towards attaining identifiable goals. What does this mean?
First, people's choices are interdependent and they realize this fact. In other words, the choices one person will make will affect another and vice versa. All decisions will have consequences for someone else, and their decisions will have an affect on you.
To understand this point, I need someone to assist me. (Walk up to person in front.) I have jelly bean in one of my hands. Choose which one. (Person chooses.) Good, you chose the correct one OR Nope, it wasn't in that hand. Now, close your eyes while I move the jelly bean around. Okay...choose again. (They choose again but may or may not be correct.)
The first time that chose one of my hands, s/he didn't have any way to anticipate where I would be hiding the jelly bean. The second time, they would know which hand I kept in it before, but probably would believe that I would switch hands because s/he realizes that I am aware which hand was chosen before. However, I'm aware that s/he is aware of what decision s/he made before and can anticipate that s/he won't chose that hand again. Therefore, I would probably leave it in the hand I had it in before. However, s/he is probably aware that I am thinking this fact, so s/he will choose the same hand, but I'm aware that she may be aware and etc.
In other words, we are both aware of what the other is anticipating, so our choices are dependent on how we expect the other to respond.
The second part of the rational choice paradigm is that the institution is the vehicle for groups of people to make decisions. This is what our forefathers had in mind when they set up representative government. There are too many people here to be represented individually, so we have governmental and other systems where there are people chosen to represent large numbers of us.
The last part of the rational choice paradigm states that the motivations for making decisions is goals. In other words, think of why you came here instead of sleeping in this morning. What are your goals? How do they coincide with the reason you came here?
Now, quickly break into your groups and and take 10 or 15 minutes to think about this: would you be willing to help a particular group, how and why?
Group Circumstance
  1. People in MA are about to be hit by a comet.
  2. People in Great Britain are about to be hit by a comet.
  3. People in Iraq are about to be hit by a comet.
Discuss how our attitudes differ towards each group and how helping these groups will fall in line with our goals as a country or community.
Now we're going to learn extensive form. Extensive form is a visual model from which we can base our mathematical models.
(Suggest that you have an overhead or chalkboard drawing of an example of extensive form.)
The first part of extensive form is the Decision Node. This identifies who it is that must decide at a particular stage of the decision making sequence. This is noted by the number at the node.
The second part is the branch. This connects one node to another and indicates which decision is the the consequence of the selection of a particular action.
The third part is the labeling of lines. This denotes the actions.
The last part is the specification of the outcome. This is what happens after everyone acts.
First I'm going to show you how to label an extensive form chart. After that, I want everyone to take a few minutes to do one of their own pertaining to the discussion we had about what to do if a comet were to hit . Then we'll put the main ideas together to make a large one.
Use example from pages 14 and 15, Ordeshook, "A Political Theory Primer".
Have kids break into groups as before and fill in similar chart with as many decision nodes as possible. After they have completed it, including the specification of outcome, do a class chart. What would happen if an NEO were to approach earth? Would the world's leaders be able to work together to divert the NEO or would they let their differences get ahead of them and let the NEO hit the earth? In the same way, what would happen if they couldn't divert the NEO and it was definitely going to it earth. Would there be cooperation among countries or not?
Discussion on weapons available to destroy NEOs and who owns them.
Discussion on effects of an NEO hitting earth. (Many of these effects depend on the size of an asteroid...how large is a dangerous NEO?)
Activity
For the activity, we need to develop sheets with important information about certain countries (some should be world powers, others should probably be very small). These sheets should contain information such as population, average income per capita, growth rate, etc. On the opposite side of each sheet should be information concerning weapons available, how many, etc.
Break the kids into small groups and choose a country name at random (draw a piece of paper out of a hat). Give them their spec sheet for their country.
Joint mission to destroy an NEO
Tell the kids that a comet of a certain size is approaching earth. Explain the how fast it is coming, how much time is left to destroy it, where it will hit earth and anything else that may be relevant.
Ask them to take on the role of world leaders representing their countries within their groups. Tell them they have 30 minutes to come up with a joint agreement to destroy the NEO. Have one person act as a spokesperson and tell the other groups how they were going to accomplish this goal and what obstacles they encountered.
How to react if we can't stop an NEO
Ask groups to now try to make a plan which will explain how the world's countries would deal with the impact. Would the country in the path of the object be able to evacuate? How would other countries try to help, if they would even consider helping? Why wouldn't they help? How would evacuating country cope?

Contact vanhoosr@cco.caltech.edu