The recent discovery of evidence for the past existence of life on Mars has elicited widespread public support for a significant expansion in the nation's Mars exploration program. An exploration program based upon a permanent human presence on the Red Planet will not only unlock the secrets of possible past life there, but will also establish the rich promise of a human future on Mars.
    Robotic probes can return much useful data on Mars for modest cost, and the National Space Society therefore fully supports NASA's plans to continue and accelerate its robotic Mars exploration program. However in realistically considering the requirements of conducting paleontological and other forms of field exploration on Mars, the severe limitations of small robotic rovers commanded from Earth with 20 minute time lags on data transmission must be admitted. For example, it can safely be said that no number of robotic units similar to those currently planned for Mars, if landed on Earth by some extraterrestrial exploration authority would ever discover any evidence for our planet's dinosaur past. Real exploration requires the ability to hike long distances over rough ground, to scramble over boulders and up steep hillsides, to do both heavy work and delicate work, and to use subtle forms of intuition, perception and intelligence, all of which are light years beyond the capability of robotic rovers. It is likely that the evidence recently discovered for a past Martian biosphere is just the tip of an iceberg. To carry out a competent program of field exploration to find the truth about the past history or possible present existence of life on Mars will require the skills that only human explorers, real live rockhounds and prospectors operating for extended periods on the planet's surface, can offer.
    But Mars is much more than an object of scientific inquiry--it is a world full of history waiting to be made. It has been clear since the 1970's Viking missions that Mars possesses all the raw materials needed to support the eventual creation of self-sufficient human settlements. It is the belief of the National Space Society that a positive future for humanity requires the expansion of civilization into space; that the creative interplay of human ingenuity with the challenge, freedom, and unlimited resources of the space frontier will be central to our posterity's hopes for a free, prosperous, and dynamically progressive society. The establishment of a permanent human outpost on Mars would be a giant step towards the realization of that vision.
    Mars is not the only celestial body of interest to the human future in space. However, in sending humans to Mars, we would also develop the technologies needed to establish humans on the Moon and the asteroids, thereby accessing their potential as well.
    If a permanent human presence on Mars is to be made economically sustainable, the costs of transportation to orbit and through space, as well as the mass of supplies needed to support a Mars outpost, must be dramatically reduced. Therefore, in parallel with the push to get humans to Mars, NASA must continue and expand its efforts to create those technologies which will provide ever cheaper access to orbit, advanced propulsion for cheaper interplanetary transportation, and resource utilization technologies that will allow humans to be increasingly self-sufficient on Mars and other extra-terrestrial bodies.
    Despite the greater distance to Mars, we are much better prepared today to send humans to Mars than we were to launch humans to the Moon in 1961 when John F. Kennedy committed the nation to that goal. Cost is not really the central issue either; NASA's average budget during the period 1961 to 1973, when it built up from near-zero space capability to storm heaven with the Mercury, Gemini, Ranger, Surveyor, Mariner, NERVA, Apollo, and Skylab programs was $15.4 billion in 1994 dollars. That is only 18% greater than NASA's current budget. A humans-to-Mars program can be accomplished within the scope and the scale of the existing US space program. The problem is not lack of money, but lack of focus and direction. For the past two decades the US space program has floundered without any central motivating goal. As a result, funds have been spent at a rate comparable to that of the 1960's without producing anything approaching commensurate results. Thus, in point of fact, rather than being a waste of money, launching a humans-to-Mars program would provide the American space program with a focused goal that would give the American taxpayer a much better return for their space dollars then they are currently receiving.
    In the 1960's the Moon was the goal that forced the space program's reach to exceed its grasp, in the process forcing it to develop computers and many other technologies whose resulting economic spin-off is still unfolding today. The space program of the 1960's was an invitation to the youth of the nation to join in a great adventure by developing their minds. Today, such an invitation is absent. The inspiration to educational achievement in science and engineering that a Mars program would provide would be a sound investment in intellectual capital, the true source of all our future wealth. Between now and 2008, over 100 million children will either enter or graduate from our nation's schools. If a humans-to-Mars program should only succeed to inspire even a tiny extra percentage of these children to educate themselves for careers in science or engineering, the gain in national income generated in the course of their careers would dwarf the expenditures of the Mars program many times over.
    We have a new world that needs to be explored, a generation that needs to be inspired, and a space program that needs to be mobilized. A humans-to-Mars program, planned in such a way as to be sustainable, can do all of these things. Therefore, the National Space Society calls upon the Administration and Congress to set a clear goal of establishing human explorers on Mars by the end of the first decade of the 21st Century.

"Venus"
Presented by Larry Klaes on July 11, 1996

Venus, our closest celestial neighbor and the most Earthlike of the planets, is enclosed in a thick shroud of clouds. Over the centuries it has given the appearance of being serene, even boring. But now, after we have sent out our planetary probes to its surface, we have found many contradiction to our assumptions about this, the brightest of all the planets. It is about as boring as a cobra. Anyone who tries to penetrate its veil will be subjected to a quick and terrible death. Between 1961 and 1984 the Soviet Union launched about two dozen Venera craft, each with a planetary probe or lander. The United States sent 3 Mariner flybys, 2 Pioneers (one with 4 probes) and the Magellan radar mapper. All were sent between 1962 and 1989 with Magellan being terminated in the atmosphere in 1994.
    The once enigmatic planet shook us to our foundations after the Venera 4 probe began the first successful descent into the clouds in 1967. The atmospheric pressure crushed it as the increasing temperature cooked the electronics. Although Venus's orbit is 0.72 astronomical units from the Sun and it receives about twice the solar energy as the earth, the surface temperature is much higher than once expected: an unbelievable 480°ree; C (900°ree; F), the result of the greenhouse effect created by the heat-trapping properties of the atmosphere which is almost completely carbon dioxide. A bar of lead or zinc placed on the surface would simply melt. Floating in the upper atmosphere is a layer of sulfuric acid droplets condensed on aerosols of sulfur. This is what reflects the sunlight and which makes Venus (the morning and evening star) both brilliant and beautiful in appearance from Earth.
    The planet has a diameter of 7520 miles, and a density of 90% of the earth. Its year is 225 days long, and a single day is equivalent to 243 Earth days. Not only does it rotate very slowly, but it also is going in the wrong (retrograde) direction, causing the Sun to rise in the west and set in the east 116.8 days later. For Earth, the molecular weights of the atmospheric components is 29 but 45 for Venus, which would seem to make the Venusian atmospheric pressure almost twice that of Earth's. Not so! The atmospheric pressure is 1300 lb per square inch, or the equivalent of being 1 kilometer under the surface of the ocean.
    There may still be active volcanoes among the many thousands present across this alien globe. The surface, composed mostly of solidified lava, is about 800 million years old with no plate tectonics. Atmospheric heat transfer is through convection with the surface wind at a slow 10 miles per hour and peaking at the upper cloud layer at 200 miles per hour. It has many plains and an absence of small craters, which were probably filled in by lava, assuming the meteors that created them made it through the atmosphere. Of the several mountain ranges and highlands, the Maxwell range at the equator is the highest at an altitude of 7 miles.
    Although it appears peaceful and shines brightly, and you may make a wish when you see it, until humankind decides to terraform "Earth's twin", Venus is not recommended for a visit.

Thursday, October 3, 1996

It is estimated that the IBM 360 series cost $1.5 billion to develop in the 60's. Jobs and Wozniak started Apple out of a garage in the late 70's. Is a similar change of scale possible in space? Many people are willing to try, in some cases aided and abetted by NASA and the Department of Defense. Many small companies and amateur rocketeers are hard at work trying to lower the cost of access to space.
    Presented here is a path from these small beginnings to the colonization of space in natural increments.
    (1) Sounding Rockets. Sounding rockets are a small enough step that it actually could start in a garage. NASA launches about 30 a year and the Department of Defense also launches many. NASA has started a voucher program (pushed by NSS among others) for microgravity flights which could open up the market further. This phase can give the new company experience in propulsion, guidance, and operations with a relatively small investment.
    (2) Small Launch Vehicle for Low Earth Orbit (LEO). The first market would be launching small satellites. A large market is developing in this area with Motorola's Iridium and M-Star, Teledesic, and others. This could develop into a small manned research station in which organizations could rent space.
    (3) Tether/Electric Propulsion System to Geosynchronous Orbit. Communications satellites in geosynchronous orbit are currently the only big business in space. A combined tether/electric transfer has the low propellant usage of electric propulsion with almost the speed of chemical rockets. The tether system would be an economical way to transfer people to geosynchronous orbit to carry out repair and maintenance activities.
    (4) Breakout Into the Solar System. After the first three steps all the developments necessary for breakout into space are in place, with the key point being that people are there. Steps one and two develop low cost launch. Steps two and three result in experience in operating in space. Tethers from step three will be an economical way to get off and onto the moon and for orbit raising/lowering anywhere in a deep gravitational well. Solar electric propulsion (step 3) can be used to build spacecraft with high delta v and propellant ratios of less than half the vehicle gross mass which can operate well beyond Mars, opening up the entire inner solar system.
    There are a multitude of small companies and other organizations working today on the first two steps. NASA and DoD have contracted with some (e.g. AeroAstro and Microcosm) through the Small Business Innovative Research Program or other means.
    The National Space Society is encouraging amateur rocketeers to launch a rocket above 50 miles. NASA just had a solicitation for technology to lower launch price for small satellites to $1M. Twenty-six companies submitted thirty-four proposals. NASA accepted fifteen from seven companies. When there is a change in technology, typically there is a flurry of activity with new company formations, followed by a shakeout. It looks as though this process may be beginning in space. Most of these companies will fail or be bought out, but only one or two need to succeed to accomplish great things.